The US dollar hovered near an 18-month high on Monday, supported by strong safe-haven demand as mounting Middle East geopolitical conflict and rising oil prices pushed investors toward safety ahead of key US inflation data.
📌 Key Figures & Market Highlights:
• +$36 Billion Bullish Dollar Bets: Net long positions on the US dollar surged to ~$36B in the week to Oct 7 (up from $8.4B three weeks prior), primarily at the expense of the euro.
• 102.39 Dollar Index: Tracks the US currency near its 18-month peak, while the Euro fell 0.19% to $1.1180 (5th straight week of losses) on French fiscal deficit worries.
• $106.80 Brent Crude (+2.09%): Oil prices spiked after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and two weekend tanker strikes—remaining ~45% above pre-war levels.
• 81% Pause Probability: CME FedWatch shows an 81% chance the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, up from 51% a month ago.
💡 Key Catalyst: Markets are focused squarely on Wednesday’s CPI report. Rising living costs from energy shocks have soured consumer sentiment, leaving traders braced for a potentially hot inflation reading.