With SpaceX and Tesla set to report third-quarter results on back-to-back days, Wall Street is watching whether Starlink’s revenue surge and Tesla’s auto margins can sustain Elon Musk’s aggressive AI capital expenditure push as merger speculation mounts.
📌 Key Numbers & Financial Estimates:
• SpaceX Q3 Projections: Analysts target $12.74 billion in revenue and EPS of $0.14 (up from Q2 revenue of $7.8B and an AI cap-ex of $15.8B). Evercore ISI forecasts SpaceX’s annualized revenue run-rate to hit ~$104 billion by year-end.
• $8 Billion Spectrum Acquisition: SpaceX agreed to buy 800 MHz spectrum from Grain Management for $8B to bolster its direct-to-cell Starlink Mobile service.
• Tesla Q3 Estimates: Wall Street expects adjusted EPS of ~$0.43 on $27.88 billion in revenue. Despite delivering 486,532 vehicles in Q3, analysts project negative free cash flow of $4.92 billion as full-year cap-ex tops $25 billion.
• Potential Merger Equity Mechanics: In a potential all-stock acquisition (with SpaceX as the likelier acquirer), Barclays estimates Musk would control ~37% of the equity and 56% of total voting power.
💡 Strategic Alignment: From SpaceX’s absorption of xAI to Tesla’s heavy investments in Robotaxis, Optimus humanoid robots, and Autonomous Driving, both entities are increasingly converging around a unified AI & mobility ecosystem.