The most anticipated public debut of 2026 has transformed into Wall Street’s biggest short-selling battlefield. Elon Musk’s SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) has become a massive windfall for market bears, who have locked in an estimated $8.7 billion in paper profits since the company’s historic Initial Public Offering last month, according to data from Ortex Technologies.
Here is the data-driven breakdown of this high-stakes market tug-of-war:
📊 The Valuation Cliff & Short Metrics
- The Trading Rollercoaster: After peaking at a post-IPO high of $225.64 per share, SpaceX stock aggressively retraced all the way back down to its initial $135 IPO floor.
- The Profit Windfall: Short sellers capitalizing on the decline notched $8.7 billion in mark-to-market profits by aggressively adding to their positions during the entire downward trajectory.
- The Float Squeeze Risk: A staggering 49% of SpaceX’s entire tradable free float is currently out on loan—a massive, highly concentrated bearish bet that leaves the stock highly vulnerable to extreme volatility.
- The Leverage Ratio: Ortex estimates that every single $1 move in SpaceX’s share price shifts over $300 million in aggregate value for the short side, turning the stock into a powder keg for rapid swings.
⚠️ Why the Bears Targeted the Rocket Giant Despite SpaceX’s generational tech dominance across launch systems and orbital infrastructure, Wall Street bears found deep valuation vulnerabilities:
- The CapEx Drag: Massive investor anxieties are mounting over SpaceX’s heavy, debt-funded capital expenditure into artificial intelligence infrastructure.
- The Rich Price Tag: At its peak, the company’s ultra-lofty premium multiple made it a primary target for institutional valuation skeptics.
🔮 The Retail Counterweight Betting against Elon Musk remains a dangerously high-risk proposition. Backed by intense retail investor loyalty and institutional accumulation, SpaceX shares managed a minor 1% recovery to $136.28 on Thursday, firmly holding the defensive line right above the $135 IPO price.
💡 The Strategic Takeaway: The $8.7B short profit pool inside SpaceX proves that no company—no matter how revolutionary—is immune to valuation gravity when backed by massive debt-fueled AI CapEx. However, with half the float currently shorted, the bears have backed themselves into a corner. Any surprise operational milestone or a signature Musk tweet could trigger a historic, violent short squeeze that wipes out billions in institutional paper profits instantly.