Norway’s minority Labour government is struggling to secure support for its 2026 draft budget, missing the end-November deadline. Negotiations continue ahead of Friday’s decisive vote, which could trigger a confidence vote and potentially topple PM Jonas Gahr Stoere’s government just 2–3 months after re-election.
Why the Deadlock?
- Oil policy divide:
- The Green Party quit talks, demanding a phaseout of oil by 2040.
- Stoere insists Norway — Europe’s top gas supplier — must continue exploration.
- Israel investment dispute:
- The Socialist Left rejects the sovereign wealth fund’s holdings in Israeli firms.
- Government says only companies involved in occupied territories should be excluded.
Political Risk Rising
- Labour relies on 4 small left-wing parties, but only 2 (Centre & Red) back the budget.
- Norway’s $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund sits at the centre of the conflict.
- Experts warn politics has become more fragmented & polarised, similar to Belgium or the Netherlands.
With no mechanism for early elections, the outcome hinges entirely on Friday’s budget vote — a rare and high-stakes test for Norway’s new government.