Leveraged ETFs tied to Strategy (MSTR) — the world’s largest corporate bitcoin holder — are among the biggest victims of 2025’s crypto downturn, as bitcoin’s fall below $90,000 continues to batter related assets.
📉 Key Impacts
- T-Rex 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF and Defiance 2x Long MSTR ETF are down ~85% YTD.
- T-Rex 2X Inverse MSTR ETF has fallen 48%.
- Strategy’s own shares have dropped 40%+ this year, sliding ~70% from the November 2024 peak.
🔍 Why It’s Happening
- Bitcoin plunged from its $126,223 ATH (Oct) amid global risk aversion.
- Strategy’s “mNAV” (enterprise value vs. BTC holdings) is now ~1.1, raising concerns after CEO Phong Le suggested BTC could be sold if the metric dips below 1 — contradicting the company’s long-time “never sell bitcoin” strategy.
💰 Financial Fallout
- Strategy slashed its full-year outlook to –$5.5B → +$6.3B, down sharply from its previous $24B profit forecast, which assumed bitcoin would hit $150,000 by year-end.
- The company set aside $1.44B for preferred dividends and debt interest.
- Short sellers have earned $2.5B+ in profits YTD, including $156M on Monday alone.
📊 Analyst Sentiment
Despite the downturn:
- 16 analysts: 10 Buy, 4 Strong Buy, 2 Hold
- Median price target: $485 → +183% upside over 12 months
Michael Saylor will present “The Undeniable Case for Bitcoin” at Binance’s Dubai conference this week — a critical moment as investor confidence wavers.