So far in 2025, the hedge fund industry is showing a clear divide: systematic trend-following funds are struggling amid erratic market reversals, while discretionary macro funds are capitalizing on volatility.
📉 Trend funds, reliant on algorithms to follow market momentum, are down over 11% YTD, with major players like Systematica, Transtrend, and Aspect Capital facing losses up to 18.5%. Frequent policy shocks—such as those triggered by Trump-era decisions—have disrupted trends before these models could adapt.
📈 In contrast, discretionary macro funds, which actively shift positions based on evolving market signals, are up nearly 7% on average. Notable performances include:
EDL Capital: +24%
Rokos Capital: +9.5%
Brevan Howard Alpha: +4.32%
Some diversified firms, like Man Group and AQR, have offset trend losses with multi-strategy fund gains.
🔍 Takeaway: In today’s highly volatile landscape, flexibility and discretion matter more than ever. While trend strategies serve a defensive role, nimble macro funds are proving more resilient and adaptive.
