The era of “constructive engagement” is over. The gloves are off.
According to data from Barclays and insights from top bankers, activist investors are ditching operational turnaround plans in favor of a blunter instrument: Forced M&A.
- The Stat: In H2 2025, 54% of all activist campaigns demanded a sale or breakup (up from 35% in H1).
- The Driver: With the M&A market hitting its second-best year on record ($5.1 Trillion), activists see a “Plan A” for maximizing returns: simply selling the asset.
💰 THE PERFORMANCE GAP: Funds that pushed for M&A outperformed their peers.
- Anson Funds: Delivered a 21.2% gain last year (beating the S&P 500) by pushing for sales at Lionsgate, InterRent REIT, and Clear Channel Outdoor.
- The Industry Average: Activist funds returned 13.4% in 2025. The gap between “operational activists” and “transactional activists” is widening.
🏗️ THE 2026 PLAYBOOK: Jim Rossman (Barclays) and Kai Liekefett (Sidley Austin) predict a shift toward Small- and Mid-Cap targets.
- The Logic: Private Equity is sitting on dry powder, and smaller public companies are easier to take private than mega-caps.
- Recent Wins: Starboard Value successfully pushed Clearwater Analytics into an $8.4B buyout by Permira/Warburg Pincus just weeks after accumulating a stake.
- Current Battles: Engaged Capital is launching a proxy fight at BlackLine (BL) specifically to force a sale after the board allegedly dragged its feet.
💡 ANALYST TAKEAWAY: “Plan A is always for M&A,” notes Liekefett. In 2026, boards should expect shorter grace periods. If a stock is lagging, activists won’t ask for a board seat to “improve margins”—they will ask for a strategic review to “maximize value” immediately. The “fixer” mindset has been replaced by the “auctioneer” mindset.
👇 Governance Pros: Does “Transactional Activism” destroy long-term value, or is it the ultimate form of accountability for underperforming boards?