2025 marked the strongest U.S. IPO year since 2021, with nearly $75bn raised and blockbuster debuts like Medline (+41% day one), Circle, and Figma reigniting enthusiasm.
But first-day hype has often diverged sharply from post-IPO reality.
🔍 What the data shows
- Several IPOs doubled or tripled on debut
- Many are now 30–70% below their opening prices
- AI, fintech, crypto, and space names show the widest performance dispersion
📉 Examples:
- Figma: +250% day one → ~-58% from open
- Firefly Aerospace: +56% open → ~-71% since
- Venture Global LNG: ~-75% post-IPO
- StubHub, eToro, Bullish: sharp post-listing drawdowns
📈 Exceptions exist:
- Circle and CoreWeave have held up better, backed by clearer revenue visibility and structural demand.
Key takeaway:
The IPO window is open — but pricing discipline, business quality, and post-listing execution matter more than ever. First-day pops are no longer reliable signals of long-term value.
For investors, this is a market of selection, not sentiment.