Wall Street’s bonus season is shaping up to be the best since 2021, driven by surging deal flow, trading volatility, and record valuations, according to Johnson Associates.
Equity sales & trading desks are the biggest winners — with bonuses up 15–25%, while M&A and equity underwriting bankers can expect 10–15% jumps.
“Markets are at record valuations, and deal pipelines that were frozen are now being released,”
said Alan Johnson, Managing Director of Johnson Associates.
📈 Who’s Getting Paid More in 2025
| Business Area | Expected Bonus Change (vs. 2024) |
|---|---|
| Equity Sales & Trading | 🔺 +15% to +25% |
| M&A & Equity Underwriting | 🔺 +10% to +15% |
| Wealth & Asset Management | 🔺 +7% to +12% |
| Fixed Income & Debt Underwriting | 🔺 +5% to +15% |
| Hedge Funds & Private Credit | 🔺 +5% to +10% |
| Retail, PE & Real Estate | ⚖️ Flat to +5% |
🤖 AI, Volatility & Workforce Shifts
Trump-era tariffs have fueled volatility — boosting trading revenues — while AI is quietly reshaping Wall Street’s headcount.
Firms may cut up to 20% of staff over five years, starting with entry-level and mid-tier roles.
Salary growth, meanwhile, is cooling to just 3–3.5%, reflecting tighter cost control and slower hiring.
“Everyone’s trying to understand how AI will reshape financial careers,” Johnson said.
🔹 The Takeaway
Wall Street is back in boom mode — but not for everyone.
Trading desks and dealmakers thrive on volatility, while automation looms over the next generation of bankers.
The message is clear:
AI may cap salaries, but it’s not slowing the bonus race — yet.