JP Morgan projects that gold prices will average $5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026, citing a powerful mix of continued central bank accumulation, investor inflows, and global diversification away from the U.S. dollar.
“Gold still has higher to go as we enter a Fed cutting cycle,” noted Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy, highlighting the influence of stagflation fears, Fed independence concerns, and debasement hedging.
JP Morgan estimates that even a modest 2% reduction in foreign allocations to U.S. assets—with just 0.5% reallocated into gold—could push the metal toward $6,000 per ounce.
Gold has already surged 57% YTD, setting multiple records as investors seek protection amid geopolitical tension and monetary easing expectations. Other major banks have followed suit:
- HSBC targets $4,600 (2025)
- Bank of America and SocGen see $5,000 by end 2026
- Goldman Sachs forecasts $4,900 by December 2026
As central banks diversify and real yields decline, gold’s “safe-haven renaissance” could define the next phase of global capital allocation.