After years of regulatory resistance under the previous administration, U.S. bank M&A activity is gaining renewed momentum. Industry insiders cite greater clarity and a more permissive regulatory stance under President Trump as key enablers.
📊 Key Highlights:
Talk of M&A is rising among large U.S. and regional banks, with firms like BNY Mellon reportedly approaching Northern Trust. While NTRS prefers to stay independent, the outreach has sparked broader deal conversations.
In H1 2025, 57 U.S. bank M&A deals were announced (vs. 56 in H1 2024), mostly among smaller lenders (S&P Global data).
Regulatory changes proposed by the Federal Reserve last week would make it easier for large banks to retain a “well managed” status—a key requirement to pursue acquisitions.
🏦 Big vs. Regional Bank M&A Dynamics:
Super-regional banks like PNC, U.S. Bancorp, and Truist are seen as well-positioned to execute deals quickly.
Larger banks (JPMorgan, BofA) face hurdles due to deposit share caps and systemic importance, though they’ve pursued smaller acquisitions in fintech and loan portfolios.
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs remain top candidates for traditional M&A among the GSIBs.
⚖️ Regulatory Outlook:
New Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman is expected to support lighter regulatory oversight, encouraging deal activity.
Yet, experts like Katie Cox (CoxFedLaw) note that approval timelines still span 9–12 months, with heavy focus on financial stability and antitrust concerns.
⛔ A cautionary reminder: in 2023, TD Bank’s $13.4B takeover of First Horizon was abandoned after regulatory delays, slashing the target’s stock by nearly 40%.
💬 “There is a clear case for gaining scale,” said Tom Michaud (KBW). “This administration gives them the best chance to get a large deal approved — so it’s better to act now.”
