Following reports that SpaceX is preparing an IPO as early as June, excitement across global markets is reaching a fever pitch. The offering could raise $25B+ and value the company at over $1 trillion — potentially climbing to $2 trillion, according to some strategists.
“It’s going to be the craziest IPO in the history of the stock market,” said Shay Boloor, Chief Market Strategist at Futurum Equities Research.
Despite SpaceX’s reputation as a high-risk, capital-intensive business, analysts expect massive retail demand, with many investors waiting years for a chance to buy in.
🔹 The Musk Factor: Risk + Reward
Elon Musk’s leadership history — marked by innovation, regulatory clashes, and headline-making drama — is viewed by many investors as part of the package. As Christopher Marangi of GAMCO said:
“The reward has to compensate holders for the risk.”
GAMCO holds exposure through EchoStar and “would be excited conceptually” about space-oriented companies.
🔹 What Could Drive the Valuation
Portfolio managers point to SpaceX’s strong existing businesses — Starlink and its launch operations — as well as future opportunities such as space-based data centers.
“This is the rare case where you have both the steak and the sizzle,” said Dan Hanson of Neuberger Berman, whose fund already holds SpaceX shares.
Analysts say SpaceX could join an expanded “Great Eight” by 2026, alongside the Magnificent Seven tech giants.
🔹 But the Risks Are Real
History shows that richly valued IPOs often disappoint.
Data from Professor Jay Ritter (University of Florida) shows that of 45 large, high-valuation IPOs since 1980, only seven traded higher after three years.
On average, such stocks lost ~50% of their value and lagged the market by 63%.
Even a $2T valuation would yield “only” a 100–200% return relative to today’s private-market pricing — a more modest outcome than some hype suggests.