The biggest IPO of 2025 is getting a resounding vote of confidence from the Street.
Following the expiration of the quiet period, major brokerages have initiated coverage on Medline Industries (MDLN) with largely bullish ratings, betting that the company’s vertically integrated supply chain will continue to drive market share gains.
📈 THE ANALYST CONSENSUS: Shares, which have already surged from their $29 IPO price to close at $40.52, are seeing price targets as high as $50 (+23% upside).
- J.P. Morgan: Overweight, $50 PT.
- Piper Sandler: Overweight, $50 PT (Citing “Prime Vendor Strategy” as the “secret sauce”).
- Morgan Stanley: Overweight, $48 PT.
- Jefferies: Buy, $50 PT.
- RBC: Outperform, $47 PT.
🛡️ THE INVESTMENT THESIS: It’s not just about selling gloves; it’s about logistics.
- The Moat: Analysts highlight Medline’s dual role as both manufacturer and distributor. This creates a “flywheel effect” where supply chain reliability drives adoption of their own-brand products (surgical kits, apparel).
- The Cost Partner: As hospitals face margin pressure, Medline is positioning itself as the partner to “take cost out of the healthcare system.”
🔔 THE BROADER SIGNAL: Medline’s strong debut is seen as a green light for the 2026 IPO pipeline. After the market weathered 2025’s volatility (tariffs, government shutdown), the success of a massive PE-backed exit (Blackstone/Carlyle/H&F) sets the stage for upcoming heavyweights like SpaceX.
💡 ANALYST TAKEAWAY: Medline has successfully transitioned from a $34B private equity buyout (2021) back to the public markets with its growth story intact. The consistent $48-$50 price targets suggest that institutional investors view this not as a “COVID trade,” but as a long-term infrastructure play on healthcare efficiency.
👇 Healthcare Investors: Is Medline’s “Prime Vendor” model strong enough to fend off competition from traditional distributors like McKesson or Cardinal Health?