Is the freeze on Chinese investment in Canadian mining officially over?
Zijin Mining (2259.HK) has agreed to acquire Canadian miner Allied Gold (AAUC.TO) for C$5.5 billion (US$4.02 billion) in cash. The deal comes at a pivotal moment, coinciding with record-high gold prices and a notable diplomatic pivot between the two nations.
💰 THE DEAL METRICS:
- Price: C$44 per share (a ~5.4% premium to last close).
- Total Value: ~C$5.5 billion all-cash.
- Break Fee: Allied must pay C$220 million if the deal is terminated.
- Timeline: Expected to close by late April 2026.
🤝 THE GEOPOLITICAL UNLOCK:
While Western scrutiny of Chinese mining investment has been high (particularly in critical minerals), this deal arrives just weeks after Canada and China reached a preliminary agreement to cut tariffs on EVs and canola. The acquisition of a gold miner—traditionally less sensitive than lithium or copper—appears to be the first major test of this renewed “strategic cooperation.”
🌍 THE STRATEGY:
- For Zijin: Continues its aggressive global expansion to secure long-life assets while cash flows are flush from record bullion prices.
- For Allied: CEO Peter Marrone (a veteran dealmaker) secures a cash exit that crystallizes value for shareholders, leveraging the company’s African portfolio.
💡 ANALYST TAKEAWAY:
Two narratives are converging here. First, the “Buy vs. Build” thesis is dominating the gold sector; majors would rather buy existing ounces than navigate the permitting hell of new mines. Second, and more importantly, this deal signals that the door for Chinese capital in Canada is cracking open again—provided the commodity isn’t on the “Critical Minerals” list. If Ottawa approves this without friction, expect a queue of other Chinese majors to revisit Canadian targets.
👇 Mining Investors: Is this the start of a new wave of Chinese inbound M&A, or will the “National Security” review still be a hurdle?