Harvey Schwartz’s turnaround at Carlyle Group (CG) is officially hitting its stride.
After trailing behind mega-cap peers like Blackstone and Apollo in recent years, the $477 billion asset manager just unveiled an aggressive new growth roadmap. The centerpiece? A massive $200 billion capital raising target by 2028, signaling a highly calculated pivot toward the stability of global credit and secondaries.
💰 THE $200B ROADMAP: Carlyle expects to significantly outpace the $158 billion it raised between 2023 and 2025. Here is exactly where the new capital is headed:
- $90 Billion: Global Credit
- $60 Billion: AlpInvest (Secondaries)
- $50 Billion: Global Private Equity
⚙️ BUILDING THE EARNINGS ENGINE: The core strategy isn’t just about AUM growth; it’s about insulating the firm from market volatility—like the recent AI-driven selloff in software stocks that bled into the broader asset management sector.
- Fee-Related Earnings: Targeting $1.9+ billion by 2028 (up from $1.2 billion in 2025) to lock in stable, predictable, management fee income.
- Distributed Earnings: Projected to climb past $6.00 per share by 2028 (up from $4.02 in 2025).
- Capital Return: The Board just approved a massive $2 billion share buyback program to reward shareholders while the turnaround takes root.
🌍 THE MACRO TAILWINDS: Why is Carlyle accelerating its timeline now? The M&A freeze is finally thawing. Lower interest rates are making deal financing fundamentally cheaper, and easing concerns over U.S. trade policies are giving asset managers the confidence that stronger M&A activity will support lucrative exits in the near future.
💡 ANALYST TAKEAWAY: Three years into his tenure, Schwartz has systematically reshaped Carlyle. By aggressively scaling credit and secondaries over traditional buyouts, Carlyle is building a highly resilient, fee-generating machine designed to weather tech-driven market shocks and close the valuation gap with its mega-cap rivals. The market clearly loves the roadmap—sending shares jumping 5.3% on the announcement.
👇 Private Equity Strategists: With $90B targeted for Global Credit versus only $50B for Global PE, is Carlyle proving that the future of alternative asset management is fundamentally a credit play?