Oil prices staged a rebound on Monday, recovering from Friday’s sell-off as investors navigated a complex mix of diplomatic breakthroughs and renewed supply threats.
📉 PRICE ACTION:
- Brent Crude: $61.97 (+2.2%)
- WTI Crude: $58.05 (+2.3%)
🔍 KEY DRIVERS (The Bull/Bear Tug-of-War):
1️⃣ Geopolitical Developments:
- Ukraine: Progress reported in talks between President Zelenskiy and U.S. President-elect Trump regarding a framework for peace.
- Middle East: Renewed anxiety over supply disruptions following Saudi air strikes in Yemen.
2️⃣ Supply & Demand Signals:
- Bullish: Strong waterborne crude imports from China are keeping markets tight in specific regions.
- Bearish: Saudi Arabia is expected to cut Feb prices for its flagship Arab Light to Asia (3rd consecutive month), signalling abundant supply.
3️⃣ Year-End Volatility: Analysts (IG) warn that thin holiday liquidity is amplifying price swings.
💡 ANALYST OUTLOOK (UBS): $60/barrel is viewed as the “soft floor” for Brent. A slight recovery is projected for 2026, driven by a potential stall in non-OPEC+ supply growth.
👇 Traders: Is the $60 floor for Brent solid, or will Q1 supply surpluses break through support?