The retail M&A freeze is officially thawing.
According to insights from the ICR Conference in Orlando—gathering 3,000+ CEOs and bankers—the sector is pivoting from “Tariff Paralysis” to an IPO super-cycle. After U.S. tariff announcements sidelined deals in early 2025, confidence has returned, driven by a backlog of exits and renewed corporate clarity.
🔔 THE IPO WATCHLIST: Bankers report a queue of “high-quality companies” reminiscent of 2021. Keep an eye on:
- Once Upon a Farm (Organic Baby Food)
- Caliber Holdings (Auto Repair – backed by Hellman & Friedman)
- Bob’s Discount Furniture (Retail – backed by Bain Capital)
- Chain Restaurants & Convenience Stores
🗣️ THE GOLDMAN VIEW: Ben Frost, Global Co-Head of Consumer Retail at Goldman Sachs, summarized the shift: “The number of high-quality companies that are in queue to go public in 2026 is higher than we’ve seen since 2021… Private investors will see the ability to exit investments again in a regular way.”
🌪️ THE DRIVERS OF ACTIVITY:
- Mega-Mergers: The appetite for scale returned late last year with Kimberly-Clark’s ~$50B acquisition of Kenvue and Gildan’s $2.2B buy of Hanesbrands.
- Strategic Splits: Following the Kraft Heinz break-up and Keurig Dr Pepper/JDE Peet’s deal, expect more unbundling to unlock value.
- Carve-Outs: Ellie Rubenstein (Manna Tree) predicts a wave of corporate carve-outs as big conglomerates shed brands that have “gotten lost” in the portfolio.
- Activist Pressure: With agitators taking stakes in Lululemon and Target, boards are under pressure to explore strategic alternatives.
💡 ANALYST TAKEAWAY: 2025 was a story of two halves: a frozen H1 due to policy shock, and a thawing H2. 2026 is shaping up to be the year of the “Private Equity Exit.” With firms like Bain and Hellman & Friedman queuing up assets, the reopening of the IPO window isn’t just about public listings—it’s the liquidity event required to restart the entire buyout flywheel.
👇 Consumer Investors: Are you betting on “Health & Wellness” brands (like Once Upon a Farm) or value-driven retail (like Bob’s Discount Furniture) for the 2026 vintage?