The fear trade is out; the growth trade is back in.
Wall Street bounced higher today as a “perfect storm” of positive catalysts—led by TSMC’s forecast-smashing earnings and fading war risks in the Middle East—pushed equities back toward record territory.
📱 THE TECH CATALYST:
- TSMC (2330.TW): The world’s chip foundry king posted a 35% jump in Q4 profit, sending its US shares to record highs and lifting the entire sector (including ASML).
- Nvidia (NVDA): Sentiment got a secondary boost from President Trump’s decision to allow some AI chip sales to China, which Spartan Capital calls “another plus for the market.”
🕊️ THE GEOPOLITICAL PIVOT: Safe havens are unwinding rapidly as the immediate threat of US military action in Iran subsides.
- Oil: Cratering ~4% (US Crude $59.33 / Brent $63.80) as the “war premium” evaporates.
- Gold: Dipping from its recent record to $4,614/oz as demand for safety wanes.
🏦 EARNINGS & MACRO:
- Financials: BlackRock (+4%), Goldman Sachs (+3%), and Morgan Stanley all beat estimates, confirming a strong start to earnings season.
- The Fed: Economic data remains robust (jobless claims fell unexpectedly). Meanwhile, President Trump signaled a “holding pattern” regarding Fed Chair Jerome Powell, potentially reducing near-term institutional friction despite the ongoing DOJ probe.
💡 ANALYST TAKEAWAY: The market narrative has flipped in 24 hours. Yesterday, the focus was on supply chain shocks and missiles. Today, it is back to AI Fundamentals and Resilient Consumers. With TSMC confirming that AI demand is real and accelerating, investors are comfortable buying the dip, provided the geopolitical ceiling doesn’t lower again.
👇 Traders: Are you using this dip in Oil to go long, or do you see further downside as geopolitical risk fades?