The final numbers for 2025 are in, and for the top tier of multi-manager and macro funds, it was a year for the history books.
Fueled by an AI-powered equity rally and “whiplash” volatility from the Trump administration’s trade policies, the industry average hit 16%—double the return of the previous year.
📊 THE LEADERBOARD (Net Returns 2025):
The Outliers:
- 🥇 Bridgewater (Pure Alpha): +34% (Highest profits in its 50-year history).
- 🥈 D.E. Shaw (Oculus): +28.2%.
- 🥉 AQR (Apex Strategy): +19.6%.
The Strong Performers:
- 🔵 D.E. Shaw (Composite): +18.5%.
- 🔵 ExodusPoint: +18.04%.
- 🔵 Point72: +17.5%.
- 🔵 Balyasny: +16.7%.
The Steady Giants:
- 🟡 Millennium: +10.5%.
- 🟡 Citadel (Wellington): +10.2%.
🌍 THE MACRO CONTEXT:
- Regional Alpha: Surprisingly, Asia-focused hedge funds led the global pack with an average return of 24%, while US-focused funds lagged with an average of 12%.
- The “Trump Trade” Factor: While volatility in bond and currency markets boosted macro funds (like Bridgewater), specific trade policy headwinds in H1 weighed on some diversified pod shops (like Citadel/Millennium).
💡 ANALYST TAKEAWAY: 2025 marked the return of “True Alpha.” With the S&P 500 up ~16%, the fact that funds like D.E. Shaw Oculus (+28%) and Bridgewater (+34%) significantly beat the benchmark—while charging 2/20 fees—validates the hedge fund value proposition in a volatile regime. The dispersion between the +30% winners and the +10% anchors shows that Macro/Quant strategies had a distinct edge over pure fundamental L/S in navigating geopolitical noise.
👇 Allocators & PMs: With Asia funds outperforming the US (24% vs 12%), are we seeing a permanent shift in where the “easy” alpha is found?