The “exit freeze” appears to be officially over.
Carlyle Group (CG) reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street estimates, driven by a resurgence in private equity dealmaking and robust performance in its credit and secondaries businesses. Shares rose nearly 4% pre-market on the news.
💰 THE NUMBERS:
- Earnings: Distributable earnings rose 13.7% YoY to $436 million ($1.01/share), beating the $1.00 consensus.
- AUM: Total assets under management hit $477 billion, up 8% from a year ago.
- Fundraising: The firm raised $53.7 billion in fresh capital in fiscal 2025.
🚪 THE RETURN OF M&A: CEO Harvey Schwartz hailed 2025 as a “record year,” noting a significant rebound in exit activity as lower interest rates and easing policy concerns under the Trump administration encouraged deal flow.
- Key Exits: Carlyle successfully monetized stakes in chip startup Ampere and fund network Calastone, and took medical giant Medline public in December.
- The Growth Engine: While buyouts are waking up, the fundraising machine is being powered by Credit and Secondaries (Carlyle AlpInvest), capitalizing on the growing market for second-hand PE stakes.
💡 ANALYST TAKEAWAY: Carlyle is demonstrating the power of the “Modern Alts” model. By balancing cyclical PE buyouts with steady, high-demand flows from Private Credit and Secondaries, they are smoothing out earnings volatility. The surge in “realized performance revenue” ($123M) is the signal the market has been waiting for: LPs are finally getting cash back, which usually precedes a new cycle of deployment.
👇 PE Pros: With the IPO window cracking open (Medline), are we about to see a rush of 2021-vintage exits in 2026?