While the energy and auto sectors roll back green targets under political pressure, Global Shipping is holding the line.
Despite a US and Saudi-led push to delay the IMO’s global carbon levy by a year, the maritime industry’s biggest players are forging ahead with billions in decarbonization investments. A new analysis reveals that the sector is prioritizing 30-year asset lifecycles over 4-year election cycles.
📊 THE DATA: A DUAL-FUEL REVOLUTION The order book tells the real story:
- The Investment: Over $150 billion has been committed to dual-fuel vessels (LNG, Methanol, Ammonia) as of Dec 2025.
- The Dominance: Dual-fuel ships now account for 74% of the order book for container ships and vehicle carriers.
- The Volume: 1,126 green-capable vessels are delivered or on order—a 28% increase YoY.
🌍 THE DRIVER: REGIONAL REGULATION > GLOBAL CONSENSUS Why invest if the global tax is delayed? Because ships have to dock in Europe.
- The “Brussels Effect”: The EU’s FuelEU Maritime and Emissions Trading System (ETS) are forcing hands. To avoid massive penalties on European voyages, owners like Maersk, NYK, and Mitsui O.S.K. must modernize now.
- The Quote: Hakan Agnevall (CEO, Wartsila) puts it bluntly: “It’s not bold to say that regulations will change during those 30 years.” Customers buying engines today are hedging for 2050, not 2026.
🛡️ INDUSTRY RESILIENCE: Unlike automakers curbing EV plans, shipping giants are treating the IMO delay as a “pause for refinement” rather than a signal to stop.
- CMB.Tech: Continuing ammonia bunkering investments.
- Pacific Basin: An outlier in ordering oil-only vessels; the vast majority are choosing flexibility.
💡 ANALYST TAKEAWAY: This is a case study in “Regulatory Arbitrage” failing. Even if the US and IMO tap the brakes, the EU has successfully exported its climate standards to the high seas. Because ships are mobile global assets, they must be built to the highest common denominator of regulation (Europe), not the lowest (US/Saudi). The commercial reality is that a ship built today without dual-fuel capability is a future “stranded asset.”
👇 Logistics Leaders: Is the “Brussels Effect” now the de facto global regulator for shipping, rendering the IMO’s timeline irrelevant?